Draft Lottery Simulator
Run the weighted lottery drawing and see who lands the number one overall pick.
NBA Draft Lottery Simulator: Predict the Future of the League
Every spring, the NBA Draft Lottery becomes the most important event for fans of struggling franchises. While the regular season crown goes to the champion, the lottery is where dynasties are born. Whether you support the Pistons, Wizards, or Spurs, our simulator lets you run the weighted lottery drawing instantly to see who secures the coveted number one overall pick.
The Math of Tanking: Understanding NBA Lottery Odds
In 2019, the NBA Board of Governors implemented a new weighted system to discourage teams from intentionally losing games. The three worst teams now each have an equal 14.0% chance at the top pick — meaning no single team is guaranteed anything.
- The Bottom Three: The teams with the three worst records each hold a 14.0% chance at the number one pick — equal footing at the top.
- The Miracle Jump: Even the 14th seed holds a 0.5% chance to jump into the Top 4. Our simulator shows these miracle outcomes happen more often than you think.
- The Locked Picks: The lottery drawing only decides picks 1 through 4. Positions 5 through 14 are filled in inverse order of regular-season standings.
- Run 100 Simulations: Use the 100-run mode to see a probability distribution — how often each team realistically lands the top pick across many draws.
How to Read the Results
When you run a simulation, check the Movement column in the full draft order table. UP means your team defied the odds and jumped higher than their seed. DOWN means other teams leaped over them. STAY means they held their mathematical position. The lottery is built on randomness — which is exactly why it is so captivating every spring.
Share Your Result
Did your team just land the number one pick to draft the next generational superstar? Use the share buttons to post your lottery result on X, Facebook, or WhatsApp. The debate over who should be drafted first starts right here.